The Imminent Tokyo Mega Quake

Guest post by: T.S. Muffin Man

If someone were to suggest that a natural catastrophe could cause a major period of planet-wide economic, and thence social, upheaval, most would consider this scenario highly unlikely, if not preposterous: perhaps conceivable only in the rejected script for a Hollywood disaster movie.

If pressed, the reader might bring to mind the unlikely event of a large meteorite striking the Earth. But the first part of such a natural catastrophe is already unfolding in Japan. I refer of course to the earthquake and tsunami of March 11, 2011 and the consequent triple partial nuclear meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant.

The magnitude 9 earthquake that struck that day was the largest in Japan’s recorded history and one of the most powerful to have occurred on this planet. It shifted the earth four inches on its axis and raised the seabed 88 feet.  It was also the most expensive natural disaster in human history. Estimates for the cost of rebuilding the pulverized coastline, and the towns and cities destroyed by the tsunami amount to $200 billion. Moreover, costs of decontaminating the four destroyed nuclear power stations and surrounding towns and farmland in Fukushima and other Japanese prefectures will be in the magnitude of $300 billion.

Caesium 137 and other radioactive isotopes have been spread over much of northern Japan, contaminating the food supply, threatening the health of hundreds of thousands of Japanese. As will be detailed within my book, the disaster at Fukushima came within a whisker of becoming a full triple meltdown. Despite the urgent need to replace oil as our principal source of energy it will henceforth be very difficult to construct new nuclear power stations in the industrialised countries, due to widespread visceral anti-nuclear sentiment. After Chernobyl and Fukushima, nuclear power is generally perceived as being far too dangerous a source of energy. Germany has now emphatically rejected nuclear power generation. Henceforth, Japan will give top future priority to generating energy from clean renewable resources. Of its 57 nuclear power stations only 2 are currently in operation.

As bad as the earthquake/tsunami/meltdown catastrophes have been for Japan, the country now faces the imminent prospect of even greater disaster: since the March 11 earthquake activity along tectonic plates nearer and under the Japanese capital has increased. Magnitude 3 earthquakes in the vicinity of the Kanto Plain have multiplied fourfold. Seismologists from the University of Tokyo now predict a major earthquake will strike the Japanese capital. The likelihood of a magnitude 7 or larger quake striking a conurbation inhabited by 33.5 million people is now 70% within the next four years.

Tokyo/Yokohama and its sprawling suburbs is both the most densely populated and also the most economically vital area of the Japanese archipelago. The headquarters of the vast majority of Japanese corporations are located in the capital. All political and bureaucratic power is centred there. The ports at Yokohama and Tokyo are essential for Japan’s trade with the rest of the world. In today’s globalised economy Western and Asian countries are critically dependent on high-tech products and components manufactured in Japan. Should these be cut off for even a limited time economic chaos will follow.

As mentioned above, the March 11 catastrophe was the most expensive natural disaster in history. Japan already had debts equivalent to 220% of GDP even before the tsunami struck. The country will somehow manage to finance reconstruction in the wake of this disaster without repatriating its nest egg invested in US Treasury bonds. But when the imminent major earthquake strikes the capital Japan will have no choice but to repatriate most or all of its holdings in foreign nest-eggs to pay for a colossal decade-long rebuilding project in its shattered capital. This will in turn have a hugely adverse effect on the US, and thence world, economy. A major earthquake striking Tokyo will affect every man, woman and child on the planet for years to come. With each passing week the odds on this scenario occurring become shorter.

T.S. Muffin Man has lived in Tokyo for three decades.  He is a writer, an NLP and Hypnotherapy expert and at least fifty percent Mayan doomsday harbinger.

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