“In our country the lie has become not just a moral category, but a pillar of the state.” -Alexander Solzhenitsyn
Nuclear power has done a lot for Japan and it’s going nowhere. The first commercial reactor went online in 1966, and since 1976 Nuclear power has been given the high throne of national strategic priority. Before 2011/03/11, an estimated 30% of Japan’s power needs were met by nuclear means and it has been projected that by 2030 50% of power in Japan will be Nuclear.
As of late there have been protests in abundance and many an outcry demanding a move away from nuclear power, but this is all completely in vain. Japan as an entity has invested too much time, money and hope in the dream of nuclear power to simply turn away from it. The old guard sitting on the hill won’t let this happen just like they won’t let women forget what they’re here for.
Keep up the good work, Japan.
And why should they? To all the protesters that posted pictures on Facebook taken with your iphones and digital cameras, who is going to make up the difference when all the nuclear plants are shut down? You? Are you going to reach into your pocket to fund the construction of massive fields of alternative energy producing facilities? Are you going to pay the insane tax on the imported coal and oil and wear a mask so you can breath outside due to what will be absolutely beyond belief rampant air pollution? No?
Then shut the fuck up. You were all OK when things were “safe”. You’ve all enjoyed the growth and development that came hand in hand with nuclear power. So unless you’re willing to pony up a massive amount of cash and drastically change your lifestyle, shut it.
That having been said, Japan has nuclear weapons.
A lot of people, including most Japanese, will tell you something different, but don’t drink the Kool-Aid. These weapons exist.
If you came into my house, and in an extra room, sort of off to the side of the living room, you saw a bunch of shelves, and on these shelves, you found the following materials: tons of cold medicine, Hydrogen peroxide, Lithium batteries, rubbing alcohol, Acetone, Coolers, coffee filters, aluminum foil, aquarium tubing, camping fuel, drain cleaner, road flares, dry ice, gas additives and ammonium sulfate; you might come to the logical conclusion that I am, in fact, cooking up a ton of crystal meth in the trailer out back.
And you wouldn’t be wrong!
Hey, perhaps I’m simply an amateur chemist or I am just an incredibly unlucky hoarder. Or maybe I own an aquarium and have a really bad cold, enjoy making homemade root-beer on Halloween, own an old car, dye my hair and like to be prepared. Maybe. Although “correlation equals causation” might be a logical fallacy, and we have all left com hoc ergo prompter hoc well in the dust, the reality remains; correlations between one thing and another can be very telling. Particularly when these connections begin to pile up.
So now allow me to propose another thought experiment.
Let’s say you walk into another house and in a side room you find the following: Weapons grade plutonium and a reactor that performs little other function than turning spent nuclear fuel into weapons grade gear, a highly functional three stage solid fuel rocket with proven re-entry capability, the engineering prowess to turn screw drivers and put it all together and a steady stream of politicians and military advisers that have supported a nuclear weaponized Japan.
What conclusion would you logically come to after seeing all these goodies in that room?
The Fuel
In 1995, Japan said that it had about 4.7 tons of good ole plutonium. That’s enough to make about 700 nuclear war heads, give or take an Apocalypse or two.
The Reactor
In picturesque Tsuruga, Japan, alongside the container port, the bulk terminal, the coal-fired power plant, the two textile mills and the 20 bronze statues, located in the bustling downtown district, of “popular” anime characters from the 1970’s hit Uchu Senkan Yamato, one can also find the Monju Nuclear Power Plant.
Monju is a very special power plant, because it actually produces very little power. What FBRs do, or Fast Breeder Reactors, is they reprocess largely spent uranium/plutonium. Basically the idea is for these to produce more fissile material than they consume. Great right? Sure it is. Especially considering that the most common reprocessing technique, called PUREX, “is generally considered a large proliferation concern because such reprocessing technologies can be used to extract weapons grade plutonium (or Uranium) from a reactor operated on a short refuelling cycle.”
But these facilities are heavily monitored both by agencies within Japan and by international groups such as the IAEA. Right? Correct. Hence an extensive system of surveillance which consists of Modular Integrated Video Surveillance (MIVS) and advanced radiation monitoring systems. With all this surveillance and these safe guards, there would be no way for fuel to be misplaced and hence, this FBR could never be used as a”laundry” to make weapons grade 235U.
Well, what if there was an accident and video was lost and a cover up ensued?
I only ask because in 1994 Monju went critical and there was an accident and video was, well, lost and a, um…cover up ensued.
And this matters because according to a Japanese paper on the subject of security and monitoring of FBR facilities “In fast breeder reactors and advanced thermal reactors, there exist difficult-to-access areas where direct verification of the inventory of fuel in the reactor core is impossible.” This means that after the “accident” and the lost video and the cover ups etc, it was impossible to tell if anything was actually missing.
Two other compelling pieces of circumstantial evidence exist that further tip the scales indicating Japan’s military agenda. One is that the countries that have or have had Fast Breeder Reactors, are all states that are armed with nuclear weapons or were armed. France, Germany, India, UK, USA, Russia and China.
The Second point is that the CIRUS facility in India, a FBR facility, is not under civilian oversight but rather that of the military. If it was being monitored by the correct civilian agencies both domestic and international, the production and extraction of weapons grade material would be much more difficult, so India just said “Fuck that Noise” and made it a military installation independent and unaccountable to anyone outside of the war mongers club.
The Missile
If one has a nuclear war head and wants to get it from point A to point B one needs a delivery method because throwing it probably won’t cut it.
Enter the MV Rocket!
This baby is a Japanese solid fuel rocket design for “launching satellites”, respectively. Solid fuel matters because these can sit around inactive for a pretty long time and then be launched on very short notice. This is why Japan has maintained their solid fuel technology over the years despite liquid fuel and hybrid rockets being more efficient for space launch endeavors.
In addition to having a rocket, Japan has also shown its technological prowess in the realm of re-entry. This is critical when sending something into space, because for it to then kill lots of people, it has to RE-ENTER the atmosphere and land on someone’s head.
This, according to former lieutenant-general Toshiyuki Shikata, was the point of the fifth MV Hayabusa launch and capsule re-entry. “It demonstrated that Japan’s ballistic missile capability is credible.”
The Engineers to turn screw drivers
This is incredibly clear: Japan has the technical prowess to make Nukes. In the 1998 Selig Harrison/ Rumsfeld commission it was determined by the United States that:
There is a considerable speculation that Japan has aspirations to become a nuclear power. and it could develop nuclear weapons, on short notice if it has not already done so.
The report further went on to discuss Japan’s “advanced technology in the atomic field” and it’s “stock piles of plutonium”.
‘Nuff said.
Steady Stream of Military advisers and Politicians down with WMDs
We already mentioned our homeboy Toshiyuki Shikata above, but there is a long line of powerful people in Japan that think nuclear weapons are a valid option. Former Prime minister Koizumi was quoted as saying while discussing nuclear weapons “it is significant that although we could have them, we do not.” This was considered a kind of endorsement of a nuclear armament by the man who continually visited Yasukuni Shrine during his time in office. Shinzo Abe also said that the Japanese constitution did not necessarily ban the possession of nukes as long as they “weren’t used” and were kept to a minimum. Even Yasuo Fukuda, the spineless gutter snipe, said similar things.
The prevailing argument within Japan is that the nuclear industry must be maintained not only for the commercial power it produces which keeps Japan afloat, but also to maintain the “readiness” of Japan to quickly develop a nuclear weapon. This is considered a valid deterrent to invasion and to military intervention in Japan’s national interests abroad by aggressive countries. Basic Deterrence theory.
Within this doctrine is where the problem with Japan’s subterfuge lies. According to the Deterrence theory, which the Japanese have discussed at length, in order for it to work “a country must preserve its ability to retaliate either by responding before its own weapons are destroyed or by ensuring a second strike capability.”
Even if Japan’s Engineers could cobble together a launch-able ICBM with a Nuclear warhead in a week, that would be about 6 days and 23 hours too late.
Japan knows this. China knows this. The USA knows this. And this is why Japan has surely developed and built launch-able Nuclear missiles already. You can have the coolest gun in the world, but if it has no bullets then it’s largely useless.
That is a gamble I do not see Japan being willing to take.
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Gaijinass 
Interesting. It does make a lot of sense really. The heat from the Chinese kitchen is just going to get hotter and hotter over the years.
The kawaii caption takes the cake for me.
1994 China was shooting missiles over Taiwan. 1998 N. Korea blasted one over Japan. Of course Japan has armed itself.
Japan would be stupid not to have armed itself, on this planet, and in its neighbourhood. It would also be stupid to let its people, who are the only ones to have been nuked, have to deal with the fact, as the Japanese do not mind knowing something so long as they do not have to knowledge they know it. Such as having a decent military, no matter what they call it.
Two more thoughts. Even if there is no rocket on the pad, and it would take a week, even the ‘Cuban Missile Crisis’ did not get red hot that quickly. The only thing you are vulnerable to if you do not have nukes on the pad is an unprovoked preemptive strike, which even N.Korea is not nuts enough to do, much less China. In any case, I am no ‘rocket scientist’, but I bet in extremis they could sling a nuke under a fighter faster than put it into a rocket. Then just send a ‘kamikaze’ to a Chinese/Korean coastal city at ‘treetop level’.
I do not have a big problem with very limited nuclear proliferation. Each country must have fewer than five (espescially those which have so many more now), and nearly every country should have at least one. Put it this way, who’s invaded, or declared war on, any country with a nuke? Exactly.
I think you have over simplified how quickly things can occur in todays political climate. Things can happen very quickly. And it isn’t out of the question that a political tsunami could occur in 24 hours and explode upon Japans shore. Also, the fact is normal people, basically anyone outside of intelligence communities and the upper echelons of the military really don’t know dick about what’s going on. Shit can and has happened over night. We are all literally living on the edge of a cliff.
Also, the fighter thing doesn’t wash, for a lot of reasons.
Lack of actual experience amongst Japans fighter pilots being number one. Also, Experience amongst Koreas and Chinas being another problem, not to mention very functional, anti aircraft equipment in both countries and really no problem shooting a plane down. Also, dropping one device on China wouldn’t really mean jack shit when if it came to that, China could literally remove Japan from the map with a tiny fraction of its arsenal.
For Japan to have a REAL deterrent, they need at the least, SEVERAL Nuclear weapons, all ready to launch literally at the push of a button and these would have to be positioned in various places in Japan. Some in Hokkaido, Some in Mainland, some in Okinawa, and even, I’m guessing, a few actually in foreign countries or in territories. That’s the only way Deterrence really works and the only way MAD, mutually assured destruction, is maintained. Having one nuke means dick on a global scale. Various nukes, various locations, preferably various methods of delivery.
Name me one country that has a nuke, that ONLY has one Nuke? Exactly.
As far as Japan having it and not telling its people, whatever. That’s all well and good until the Japanese people like to act high and mighty about it. Then it’s time for a nice tall glass of shut the fuck up and 800 mg of Uncle Bobs Wake the Hell up.
A lot of what you say is well put, even if I don’t agree with all of it, but I’ll spare us all a line-by-line. Let’s go to the last paragraph.
Japan’s not the only country founded on illusion, sustained by it, in denial about it, and with an exaggerated sense of its own importance or meaning to the world. And no, I am not singling out the USA, though I certainly include it with a hundred others.
I agree, and I hold them all up to this standard: spare me, motherfuckers. Just spare me.
Look around the site if you don’t believe me.
If we are talking about deterrence against first use of nukes or a war of invasion/national survival, I think you may have focused on the weakest point of the trident, especially for a densely populated country with no strategic depth. A far more convincing deterrent/indication would be the acquisition of multiple Ohio-class like subs or strategic bombers. Japan lacks anything close to these, although the Soryuu class subs are great for what they are intended for. That is not to say you are wrong in pointing out the latent capabilities being developed- and I know that many serious Japanese security officials and analysts would not deny the strategic hedge in discrete conversation – but while I can’t “prove” that they don’t have ICBMs ready to go, the “threat” of Japan going nuclear is probably more valuable than the reality of it doing so. There is a reason why China has kept its nuke numbers relatively low compared to the US and Russia, and committed itself to a second strike doctrine all these years…it’s probably not good will.
Then there is this:
Dr. Strangelove: Deterrence is the art of producing in the mind of the enemy… the FEAR to attack….
Dr. Strangelove: Of course, the whole point of a Doomsday Machine is lost, if you *keep* it a *secret*! Why didn’t you tell the world, EH?
Ambassador de Sadesky: It was to be announced at the Party Congress on Monday. As you know, the Premier loves surprises.
If you can’t admit you have them to your own public then you can’t use them as deterrence against other publics and governments. You may as well not have them.
I think all the sub talk is really unnecessary. Deterrence against an initial strike is not necessary. Simply the delivery of weapons before total destruction. If that is maintained then the balance is kept. What’s more, I’m not proposing that these things are in development; I am saying they have been developed and exist. Now. They are launch-able.
Japan is not fighting a cold war, not one like the US and the USSR have fought.
And the ability of Japan to launch ICBM’s with warheads is MORE than enough to hold back the wolves.
Plus, if they are launched, I think it would take all of about a day for the government to convince the public that it was necessary. Wolves at the door and all that. The only thing I can think of that the Japanese openly dislike more than their own politicians are China and North Korea.
Not to mention, what goes on behind close doors is just that. And the volume of back room deals and knowing head nods must be immense. Relations with other countries is no different.
The people know dick. This is the way it always is.
Which is precisely why submarines are the ultimate in survivability for the purposes of deterrence. Too risky otherwise – China can reach US bases now with the latest variants of the the DF-21, and they would be able to reach any missile launch sites. You could use portable launchers but someone would notice the essentially hundreds of launchers Japan would need to deter China properly. The fact of the matter is, is that with modern weapons systems you have sufficient deterrence if you are talking about limited strikes or limited warfare. Thus Japan’s BMD and “rocket” programs are likely about developing latent capabilities for conventional missile deterrence, pre-emptive strikes on missile sites or ASAT. If one is talking about total war and total nuclear war, then you have to go the whole hog – and such capabilities cannot be hidden…and it wouldn’t make much sense to do so. Anyway, discussion of this divorced from the US nuclear umbrella is a bit unrealistic. China is not going to take the risk that the US may react with nuclear force to any nuclear provocation anywhere. Some Japanese like Ishihara argue that Japan cannot rely on the US thus why Japan needs its own deterrent – maybe not – but no rational country is going to take even the smallest risk of waging limited or total nuclear war against a US ally.
I enjoy what you are writing in the comments but frankly I think you have missed the essence of most of the post.
Developing subs with an ability to deliver nukes would obviously be a much more complex subterfuge than the missiles they have created.
What is the preferred method of delivery etc might be interesting, but has literally nothing to do with this post.
This post is addressing what IS, not would SHOULD be.
“but has literally nothing to do with this post. This post is addressing what IS, not would SHOULD be.”
Leaving aside the implication that I lack basic reading comprehension abilities, did you not write “And this is why Japan has surely developed and built launch-able Nuclear missiles already”
1) What if you applied the same “IS vs SHOULD be” logic to your argument? Yours sounds like as much of a “Should be” argument as my own.
2) Even assuming you were correct and Japan had a dozen ICBMs in a covert program or tactical nukes in US bases, my overall point is that between current geopolitical conditions and the logic of deterrence having such weapons would be next to useless for deterring a nuclear attack from China. So since neither of us can actually prove this either which way, my argument is simply that probability suggests that they don’t…at this point in time.
Remember I did not imply that Japan lacks the capabilities and is not even working towards enhancing these capabilities – I know very well the state of play in this regard, although I think it is a little more complex (and more interesting) than simply being about a nuclear weaponization program. I just don’t believe that they have taken that final step, because it is more valuable for them to not have in the current context. Maybe the Japanese really have, in which case, I would question their judgement. That is all.
This comment doesn’t even make since.
The entire point of the article here, is me laying facts and evidence that support the existence of a Japanese nuclear missile program. Nowhere do I say they have these on a US base, which you imply above, and based on the very concept of deterrence and MAD and the points I highlighted in the article and in subsequent comments it’s clear that having these weapons would be the very definition of deterrence theory. Particularly in various launch sites.
What I am discussing is a collection of “clues” if you will, that point aggressively toward the conclusion that Japan has ICBMs equipped with Nuclear warheads. That’s what the article is about. That’s it. It is not about the best way to apply Mutually Assured Destruction. Because one could argue that without SPACE LASERS then a country is at a huge disadvantage and having other weapons is meaningless. This obviously is not the case.
And whether or not they have “taken the final step”, well the US intelligence community seems to think they have. All the pieces are at their disposal to have done it, and based on the very concept of deterrence, NOT having “taken the final step” means that all is for not.
My theory is simple and fairly sound, supported by evidence in the article: Japan has the ability and materials to make missiles, they have the motivation, the having of these missiles although not a benefit to mankind is probably seen as a necessary evil by the powers that be based on generally accepted doctrine, utilized world wide by literally all countries that have the means, to ensure a status quo is maintained and their respective interests both foreign and domestic go unchallenged, at least in the military arena. This is the same Japan that invented the Samurai, invaded China and Korea and came up Kamikaze attacks. The same one that passed out hand grenades to women in Okinawa telling them it was better to blow themselves and their children up than be taken prisoner. And the government and military that makes these decision regarding what is necessary and what is not is run by old men. The same old men that have covertly developed the Japanese “self defense force” into the fifth largest military in the world.
They have nukes.
They don’t need subs.
Making subs would simply be a bonus and would just add to their ability to apply MAD. However, as it stands now and in my article, they are applying it well as is.
I touched this topic before I had my own blog and my closest friend is a retired military person who was a Marine colonel. He told me the move the bases of Okinawa was an untenable request because of one reason is specific and it was unknown to Hatoyama but known to the countries top military commander who intentionally fell on his sword to test the waters regarding Japan having nuclear weapons.
There were pictures up until a year ago of the slopping mounds that are directly over silos that go 400+ meters into the ground and were originally built during the vietnam war. They stored other bomb types during the Korean conflict when America was going to carpet bomb with 34 nukes including on Beijing.
The silos were modified in the early 80’s during Reagan’s term and it was a source of friction between he and Nakasone because the modifications were a violation of a public agreement to remove all weapons by then.
His friend was part of a team that every 2 years sand blasted the interior silo walls and some equipment with special beads.
The weapons cannot be removed and the base expansion is partly with the idea of putting more distance between said silos and the exterior fences.
This is fact.
On a related not if anyone ever goes to Pearl Haarbor turn towards the mountains behind you (Halawa) and see the gigantic American flag…it sits between 4 missle silos.
I just left a comment…did it not get through? check spam 🙂
My comments are not getting through 😦
The reality is that it just doesn’t work the way you have mapped out (in justifying why Japan “must” have ICBMs to implement MAD vis-a-vis China), and if Japanese policymakers have followed through on the basis of that then they are foolish indeed – even more so for not telling anyone about it! The US intelligence community as a whole certainly does not think the Japanese have ready ICBMs, something I know from first hand accounts, although small sections of it might – and it would be based on guesswork. In short: Japan may have many things but it doesn’t have dozens or hundreds (the necessary amount for MAD-level deterrence against a nation with significant strategic depth and a massive population) of secretly fueled, nuclear armed, and targeted ICBMs in various missile silos/atop secretly hidden mobile launchers around the country (ie on “strategic alert”) ready to go in response to an overwhelming “MAD”-like initial strike from China. At this level, there would be no way to hide this. And it doesn’t make sense. A few token ICBMs would add exactly ZERO to Japan’s defensive security as things stand right now, geopolitically. They could be useful offensive weapons however…
And MAD only became an operational doctrine precisely because of US nuclear-armed submarines. See: McNamara, Robert.
Amazing, you are finally discussing my article. Well done. Comment more after this party is over.
A comment long in coming, but, having one launch-able weapon would add immense weight to “Japan’s defensive security as things stand right now, geopolitically”. Japan does not need to have a cold war level plan for killing every single life form in the target country. It only needs to, for example, level Bejing. This is deterrent enough. This is also why “rogue states” so desire that single nuke. Having ONE is deterrent and threat enough.
BANZAI! NIPPON!
Welcome back Potzo!
I was in Memphis.
4.7 TONS of plutonium?
maybe they have a doomsday weapon like the sovs/russkies do under the urals
enough to be a planet killer, considering how poisonous the stuff is
when military agency nasa launched a sat probe to jupiter with 28 pounds of plutonium for a power supply, experts were crossing their fingers about the near-orbit gravity slingshot into space
the aerosol effect of that much plutonium frictioning into particles on re-entry could render a huge tract of ground lifeless for a long, long time