Pick up Girls using the CARVER Matrix 2

“Don’t focus too much on getting with her, just focus on getting to THE NEXT STEP.” David DeAngelo

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In the first post in this series we applied the CARVER matrix on a strategic level to determine the area you should be operating in if access to the inner female sanctum is something high on your “to-do-list”. When you get serious about PUA, or anything else that really shouldn’t be something anyone “gets serious” about, then you can apply the same principles utilized by the US military and Special forces in their planning procedures.
It is important to first look at things Strategically. Once you have a concept and the broad strokes so to speak, then you break things down tactically. Although this warrants and really deserves its own independent post we haven’t that sort of time because hey, there is porno to watch and gossip to read so to broadly outline the shift from Strategic to tactical look at the following examples. Pretty please….

  • Strategically you think of a broad concept/ Tactically you focus on the day-to-day operations.
  • Strategically you consider the general direction/ Tactically you consider what vehicle you will use.
  • Strategically you wonder how things get connected/ Tactically you organize exactly what needs to be connected.

A very broad yet simple way to say this is that “Strategy looks at the what and why. Tactics look at the how.” The CARVER Matrix can be used when making decisions involving both or involving one but not the other.

So, back to our theoretical mission “Panty Droppage” and its designation “Gamma-2-0-Sierra-Nevada” or colloquially “Get 20-something year old Nooky” we have established our location.  Let us assume, just to speed things up that you have run various venues through the CARVER Matrix and have decided to converge upon “A971″, a fairly hip yet dully crowded business eatery/bar.  You have chosen this bar based on criteria that you defined to fit yourself considering on the type of women you will be targeting: 20 something year old office workers, yes the infamous “OL” (or money grubbers, don’t worry this mission is about subterfuge not your bank balance.)

Appropriately, you have put on a suit and tie. Nothing too dressy but enough to give you an ambiguous look.  You could be a finance guy, a teacher or a drug dealer.  You could work for the embassy or you could live with a host family. You could be homeless. You could live at an internet cafe.  There is no way to tell. The point is that you have worn the proper camouflage. Remember- you do not wear desert cammies in the Jungle.

You have further employed the use of Model based decision-making in order to determine the type of girl. Strategically, you want someone relaxed with possibly very flexible moral boundaries.  Tall would be good but not “tranny” tall and the office lady or OL vibe is really doing it for you.  Another prerequisite is that she be drinking alcohol with a pace often reserved for those dealing with a death in the family, yet not with the all-consuming passion that wraps itself around hard-core, genuine drunks.  You would like the first thing she drinks at your place in the morning to be a cup of coffee, not a left over luke-warm beer or the half-liter of Stoli she puked up the night before.

Just take our word for it on this one….just take our word.

After getting into the “vibe” and having a couple of gin tonics you spot the one.  She’s standing sort-of toward the rear of the bar that is situated in the center of the first floor, the blue glow emanating from the bar flattering, making her facial features that much soft and ultra-feminine.  She is with one friend which works well because you, being prepared and motivated, have brought a trusty wing-man along to help facilitate mission accomplishment.

The approach is simple, straight forward. Move in quickly, do not hesitate and open. You have received one casual look from her when she came in and no form of clear disgust seemed apparent.  Once you’re within speaking range, this is when you move to the tactical application of the CARVER model.

Your potential opening lines have been listed as follows:

  1. What’s your name? (eye contact, slight smile)
  2. Do you want to come to my home with me? (totally serious, sexy eyes)
  3. Sorry I’m late! (said in Japanese “Osokute Gomenne!” playful and smiling)
  4. Cheers! (glass held high “Konpai!”)
  5. God, you have a nice body baby. (looking her up and down, licking the lips….yours not hers…yet)

We are aware that these are not the only “lines” available to you however, for the sake of this post please, follow the script.  Now, let’s run these slick play-boy pros through the ever efficient and de-humanizing CARVER model.

Your opening line C A R V E R TOTAL
Opener #1 7 10 6 8 7 7 45
Opener #2 10 3 9 2 5 3 32
Opener #3 7 8 8 7 8 8 46
Opener #4 8 10 5 8 5 8 44
Opener #5 9 5 8 3 4 7 35

And the winner is….OSOKUTE GOMENE! Sorry I’m Late! with 46 points this line narrowly has passed Whats your name? and Cheers!

The rational is as follows: For overall Criticality this line is rather reserved but decent enough. You have entered the targets sphere of consciousness if you weren’t there already. If delivered properly with the right combination of humor and confidence you have shown them that you are funny, fun, have Japanese language ability and you have left things slightly ambiguous which is very good. While the two “tangos” are giggling about your silly yet effective opening line you can then follow it with Cheers! and then Whats your name?

!!TRIPLE THREAT!!

The “secret” to this line scoring high points is its moderate success in every computational component of the Matrix. Line #2 Do you want to come home with me? scores a perfect ten in Criticality making it Stupendous (yes, Stupendous) because IF this tactic is effective you will be in a taxi in 10 minutes and hopefully engaged in hot perfection love-making within the hour. However Opener #2 does not receive a high score because of very low totals in Accessibility, Vulnerability and Recognizability. It would likely be difficult to access the right combination of insanely good looks, brutal suavity and diabolical amounts of charisma in order to use this tactic. In addition, most women in the bar would not be vulnerable to such a frontal assault and finally, you have never done this before. Never before have you bathed in the sweet sexy glow of mission accomplishment via employment of this tactic. This means the tactic is unfamiliar and strange. Difficult to wield it correctly. Conversely a Cheers! or Sorry I’m Late! is something all of us have said before.

OK. I recommend you read other CARVER posts on the site to further familiarize yourself with the ins and outs of this system which is infinite in its applications and then you can take an entire Saturday afternoon calculating your assault on Japanese women-dom.

NOTE
While reading this regarding pick up in Japan, if you have never been to Japan and done this please understand there are some cultural differences that apply. Some parts of the script that work well here would result in a horrific “crash and burn” effect in a place like say “Kabul” or “San Francisco”. The actual tactics are flexible and contingent upon your area of operations.

 

Go back to part 1

 

Read more about Model Based Decision making VS your Gut and Rush Hour Drunk Girls by Gaijinass.

The more the subject matter of the CARVER matrix and its various potential applications expands and develops on this blog the more emails, comments and arguments I receive regarding its employment.

In the initial post in which I explained the use of the matrix, “Use The Carver Matrix for Management” and the subsequent article “Use the CARVER matrix to prioritize”, I used examples and illustrated the most simple possible equations in order to maximize the ease with which a lay person might grasp the initial concepts involved with this highly functional decision-making matrix.

In retrospect, perhaps this was a less than efficient approach in that now, people in general seem to have completely missed the point. Hence this post today.

I hope to expand some-what on the use of this matrix along with advocating the superiority of model based decision-making over your day-to-day intuition or “Common Sense” because, let’s face it, usually there is nothing “common” or “sensible” about “Common Sense” and, while your “Gut feeling’ might work wonders when choosing which type of crust you want from pizza hut on DVD night (Cheese filled), human intuition is more often than not less than ideal when making complex decisions involving complex and diverse equations with various data sets.

Why Model based decision-making?
Model Based Decision making “makes sense” because it relies on data and algorithms, not on someones random, biased and fluctuating personal feelings regarding a given subject.
There are, obviously, times when intuition seems (SEEMS, not IS) to be unstoppable. For example, sports. The sports super star can’t explain it, but he just KNEW he had to break left at a given point. He could just “feel” it.
Another good example would be psycho therapists. They meet a patient and immediately “sense” what might be wrong with them.

This is all well and good but there are factors involved here that require illumination.

  • It takes a long time to build good intuition. Chess players, for example, need 10 years of dedicated study and competition to assemble a sufficient mental repertoire of board patterns.
  • Intuition only works well in specific environments, ones that provide a person with good cues and rapid feedback .Cues are accurate indications about what’s going to happen next. They exist in poker and firefighting, but not in, say, stock markets. Despite what chartists think, it’s impossible to build good intuition about future market moves because no publicly available information provides good cues about later stock movements. Feedback from the environment is information about what worked and what didn’t. It exists in neonatal ICUs because babies stay there for a while. It’s hard, though, to build medical intuition about conditions that change after the patient has left the care environment, since there’s no feedback loop.
  • We apply intuition inconsistently. Even experts are inconsistent. One study determined what criteria clinical psychologists used to diagnose their patients, and then created simple models based on these criteria. Then, the researchers presented the doctors with new patients to diagnose and also diagnosed those new patients with their models. The models did a better job diagnosing the new cases than did the humans whose knowledge was used to build them. The best explanation for this is that people applied what they knew inconsistently — their intuition varied. Models, though, don’t have intuition. Cues are accurate indications about what’s going to happen next. They exist in poker and firefighting, but not in, say, stock markets. Despite what chartists think, it’s impossible to build good intuition about future market moves because no publicly available information provides good cues about later stock movements. Feedback from the environment is information about what worked and what didn’t. It exists in neonatal ICUs because babies stay there for a while. It’s hard, though, to build medical intuition about conditions that change after the patient has left the care environment, since there’s no feedback loop.
  • It’s easy to make bad judgments quickly. We have a many biases that lead us astray when making assessments. Here’s just one example. If I ask a group of people “Is the average price of German cars more or less than $100,000?” and then ask them to estimate the average price of German cars, they’ll “anchor” around BMWs and other high-end makes when estimating. If I ask a parallel group the same two questions but say “more or less than $30,000″ instead, they’ll anchor around VWs and give a much lower estimate. How much lower? About $35,000 on average, or half the difference in the two anchor prices. How information is presented affects what we think.

Intuition is unreliable.

The more advanced and complex the factors are that require a decision to be made, the more unreliable our decision-making process becomes when we are depending heavily on our “gut Feeling”.

Even the US military now has taken steps to remove Intuition from battle field decisions and base these on complex models and data instead.

Special Operations Forces/Tactical Decision Aids

Battelle Memorial Institute developed the Special Operations Forces Tactical Decision Aid (SOF-TDA) to provide automated calculations and reference material for the analysis of selected targets. The SOF-TDA software analyzes systems, subsystems, and components of the eight major infrastructure systems and develops a flow sheet diagramming the chosen target. The core of this project is the automation of the CARVER matrix, which allows the user to weight items identified on the flow chart with the objective parameters of the mission. This analysis examines all information on a given target, determines what parts of the target are vulnerable to attack, and assesses the subsequent down time or possible destructive effects. In FY05 the product was fielded to over 400 SOF teams.

The point is that more and more, the people who KNOW, are relying on Model based decision-making tactics and algorithms to raise the percentage chance of success.

CARVER and the confusion

Due to my initial examples of how to use the CARVER matrix being extremely, overly simple, many people have raised the following question:

“well, it takes more time to make this graph than it does to make the decision, I could have spent that time working on something.”

Well, if the decision you are trying to make is “Should I A: Go make a sandwich, B: Go return my DVD I rented or C: Go to the potty ?” Then I fully agree. You do not need the CARVER matrix. I really honestly think you can likely handle those choices on your own.

Conversely, if you are making complex decisions involving an ARRAY of potential tasks, time requirements, financial expenditures etc, then CARVER is invaluable. Once you move beyond the most basic decision-making matrix and then begin looking at components like subsystems, Mid and Long range variants and collateral effects on components completely orthogonal to the current situation it becomes clear that drafting a clear, detailed, concise and re-usable model makes all the sense in the world.

Keep in mind, we are still referring to mere personal decisions. Once we begin discussing small business choices all the way up to Anti-Terrorism the necessity for these modules becomes painfully clear and their unemployment in planning and day-to-day operations is irresponsible and in many cases, dangerous.

My next post is going to expand further on my original CARVER matrix involving management or perhaps personal prioritization in an attempt to clarify, in a more detailed, realistic way how this should be employed.

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I referenced the following articles while putting this post together.
The Future of Decision Making
Special Operations Forces, tactical decision aids.

CARVER Matrix: Tactical Target analysis

I have discussed utilizing the CARVER Matrix for a variety of things already on this blog:


Both of these have received a fair amount of attention so I decided to continue with the CARVER Matrix, and in fact, take things to the next level with TTA or Tactical Target Analysis.

In plain speak, what this means is a logical look at what you might want to do and whether or not it is possible, based on what you have to work with (time, money, tools, personnel etc).

I have gone over already what CARVER stands for. Criticality, Accessibility, Recuperability, Vulnerability, Effect and Recognizability.  Criticality is, after all, the most important.  Remember you can use this two ways (primarily).  CARVER can be used to access potential targets for YOU to strike (or projects for you to do etc) and it can also be employed in Risk Management or vulnerability assessments to determine what your most high RISK targets are.  Hence, CRITICALITY is paramount.  The table below is a very good construct of the Matrix in question:

The Above table is a very military type version that the SOF (special operations forces) might employ in target assessment.

Once you have a basic CARVER Matrix put together detailing your own mission etc, then you can move on to what are called TTA.

So the military is hitting a town, city, country, whatever. They put together a CARVER Matrix to easily see on paper, what targets are going to have the biggest overall payoff and hence- the most helpful or conducive to mission accomplishment. See below:

Above you can see, in this diagram, all the possible targets in a given area have been listed, the CARVER Matrix has been employed, and the most primary target for the aggressing force to attack, OR, for the defending force to protect, is BULK ELECTRIC POWER.

You can use this for anything you are doing in life.  List your goals and things you want to do, and employ the Carver matrix using the two diagrams above, remember to FIRST, CLEARLY DEFINE FIRST YOUR CURRENT LIFE GOAL, then CLEARLY DEFINE EACH GOAL OR TARGET GOING INTO THE MATRIX.

Once the primary target or goal is identified via the Matrix, you then, look at target subsystems and apply the same formula, see below:

Here we have a list of all the BULK ELECTRICAL POWER SUBSYTEMS. Out of this list, you can see that GENERATION is primary.  This is the place that is most conducive to stopping or shutting down the BULK ELECTRICAL POWER.  For example, if you list dieting in your Matrix for weight loss, and you find that it is primary, then you might want to go on to list individually, within DIETING, what components can you change, then put each of these components through the Matrix. See below:

These are all components for the GENERATION of BULK ELECTRICAL POWER and you can see that the TURBINE GENERATOR is the primary target.  If you employ this system to dieting you might find that “Eliminating sweets” might be primary or perhaps “Eating smaller meals” might be. Whatever. Everything from Risk assessment, Route Recon, Threat assessment, Vulnerability checks, Security Systems Checks and on and on. It is all applicable.

You can simplify decision making processes and realize opportunities you might otherwise miss by employing this system.

Interested in CARVER Matrix? Read more about it in Model Based Decision Making vs. Your Gut and Assigning Values within a Matrix.

New Year’s Resolution pt2: How to use the CARVER MATRIX to Prioritize

Yesterday we sat down and looked at the first step to making a sound New Year’s Resolution. How to choose your Goal and I hope you still have that paper. If not, that’s OK, just follow the link and go back and do that part again, then come back and read this article.

If you have found your paper, take a look at it. For most people, there will be a few different goals that you came up with that all fit into the criteria we established for a good New Year’s Resolution. Things like personal motivations being appropriate, the goal being measurable, Specific, attainable etc.  Some results that you might have come up with could be:

  • Save 10% of my monthly income, every month.
  • Lose 10 kilos, or about 22pounds.
  • Save $10,000.
  • Run a Marathon.
  • Write my Novel.

The possibilities are endless. Really Endless.  Whatever your goals are, check again and make sure there are things you want for you.  If you are sure, go ahead and continue reading.

The CARVER MATRIX

I have written about the use of the CARVER Matrix before on this blog in regards to How to use the CARVER Matrix for management, well today we are going to talk about how to use this system to choose which Goals on your list are the most important to YOU right NOW.

If you don’t know what The Carver Matrix is then I recommend you go read the original article about it.  It is interesting.  I will skip the introduction for the sake of simplicity and just move on to how we can use this to find which resolution should get Priority in our planning for 2010.

CARVER

C- Criticality.

How critical is the completion of this goal to your life and well-being in 2010 and beyond?  For example if you are grossly obese and a at huge risk of heart disease, losing 40 pounds might be a little more important than say, cleaning out your closet.

A- Accessibility

Is this goal accessible or is it too well defended or isolated and you can not reach it?  If you are living pay check to pay check then Remodeling your home and adding that new porch out back might not be accessible however, re-wall papering the kitchen and adding some new lighting in the living room is very do-able.

R-Return

For our purposes here, we will use RETURN in place of RECUPERABILITY.  What are you going to get back from this goal after you commit all your resources and will power to its completion.  If you are in fantastic physical shape yet do not have 20 bucks to put gas in the tank of your beat up Volkswagen, then running another marathon in 2010 might do little for your life however, developing a passive income stream or getting a new job could vastly improve your quality of life.

V-Vulnerability

How well protect is the goal or target and what or how many resources are you going to have to commit in order to over take it?  A project or goal that can be done in a weekend ie. Starting a personal blog, gets a high Vulnerability rating where as, a more long-term project like writing your first novel, gets a low rating.  This also applies to the financial requirements of your goal. If it is expensive the rating is low, affordable and the rating is high.

E-Effect

Once you complete your goal where will you be?  How will its completion affect your entire life and the lives of others?  This is similar to Return yet different. Return is more specific in terms of how much weight you lost or money you saved.  Effect is more broad and includes changing your whole life.  Something that would radically change your lifestyle would get high points, something that might have a smaller change gets lower points.

R-Recognizability

Do you have a clue how to do what you want to do or not?  Can you even see the target?  You need to lose 50 pounds yet have never exercised a day in your life and you think a Diet is part of the government.  You want to start your own business but you have 10,000 dollars in credit card debt and you think that LLC formation is something you guys did in football…well….these goals would score low points for you.  However, if you have spent the last 5 year’s abroad in Paris France and your goal this year is to take the French language examination, this is very reasonable.

Now we use a simple point system of 1-5. Higher points being good and lower points being bad.

Potential projects C A R V E R TOTAL
Save 10% monthly income 4 4 5 4 2 4 23
Lose 10 kilos 3 3 4 2 4 4 20
Save $10,000 3 2 5 1 4 2 17
Run a Marathon 2 3 3 2 3 4 17
Write my Novel 5 3 3 1 5 2 19

Now we are going to assume that this CARVER Matrix is being used by a very average individual. Not in bad shape but not an Ironman competitor. He/she has a very standard job and lives fairly comfortably but like many people saves very little. the average daily routine is wake up, off to work, maybe workout once a week, meet friends a few days a week, sometimes meet the Boy/girl friend and that’s really about it.
The values I have input into our Matrix are based on these assumptions above.

Above…you can see that for “Average Joe” the first most critical thing he can do for a New Year’s Resolution is to begin saving 10% of his monthly income.  It is immediate, not too terribly difficult to do and will have a big impact not only now but even more so in the long-term. It is fairly easy to find a way to do this and 10% is not such a high number that it is mentally daunting.

The next most impacting thing for Average Joe to under take would be losing 10kilos.  It takes a bit more planning the saving monthly and the way to do this might be a bit more murky for a weekend gym warrior but it CAN be done and losing that kind of weight can really change your life, in many ways.

The third thing to do would be writing the Novel. Although this is a BIG project and not to be taken up lightly, completion of it would be a big deal and could drastically change Average Joes lifestyle and self-image.

Why don’t you try putting your List of goals into the CARVER Matrix and see what the results are.  You might be surprised.

After you do this, keep the papers, do not throw them out or spill a beer on them because the next installment will is going to discuss “Mission Planning: How to Plan your Work and Work your Plan.”

Till then…HAPPY HOLIDAYS

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